Home stretch

We are in the home stretch. I'm spending the last few days going over my weaknesses and trying to shore them up. I'm also writing many essays. I'm not sure if I'm going to post on this blog before taking the exam. Time permitting, I will write a post for the weekend. If you don't hear from me before the exam, good luck to everyone.

Detrimental reliance

My essay predictions post turned out to be quite a hit. In the days before that post, I got about 10-15 hits a day. After that post, I got 67 hits on Thursday, 52 hits on Friday, and I already have over 20 today. My sitemeter is public so you can look. At times, I've had different feelings about my chances of passing the bar. Seeing the popularity of my predictions post has probably done more to boost my confidence in passing the bar than anything else so far. Why?

First, it made me realize that people are lazy. It's unbelievable that someone would google essay predictions and then accept what they read on my site as true. Yes, I do believe my predictions are more likely to be tested. However, I only believe that because I studied the testing patterns from over the last 10 years. Yes, I did take some of what Sakai said into account, but most of my predictions came from my own analysis. I diverged from what Sakai said when I thought his suggestions were not empirically supported. I have faith in my predictions only because I made them myself. I would never simply take someone's word for it. The bar is much too important to trust a random person on the internet.

Second, there are people out there who actually believe that predictions will be the difference between them passing and not passing. That is laughable. Yes, I made predictions. However, I only made them because I'm a bit compulsive about the exam. They are not going to be the difference between me passing or not. It's common knowledge that the overwhelming majority of your score on the CA essays comes from analysis. That is, applying the law to the facts. Issue spotting is also important because you can't analyze what you can't see. Because analysis is the bedrock of the exam, predictions can't really help much. You still have to know how to apply law to facts and make good arguments. You learn that from practice.

You simply have to study and practice to pass the exam. Use my predictions in your studies as they may help you focus. I do have faith in them. Nevertheless, you will only pass with practice and hard work.

As an aside, I'd like to note that my predictions are virtually the only ones on the internet that go beyond a simple list and explain (analyze) why the subjects will be tested. Analysis will get you that 65 or 70. A list of elements won't. Good luck to all of you. Thoughts?

July 2008 CA bar exam essay predictions

Here are my July 2008 CA bar exam essay predictions. I based them on what Prof. Sakai told us at BarBri and on my own research of the subject frequency from the last 23 examinations. Kudos to my first post that might actually be useful to someone.

1. Professional�Responsibility�? This WILL be on the exam. Out of the last 23 bar exams, the examiners have included PR in every exam except three. If it is not in the essay questions, it will be on the performance test. Apparently, the bar has to be able to tell the public they test PR as damage control when the next Enron scandal happens, so look out for it.
   
2. Remedies - Out of the last 23 bar exams, the examiners have included Remedies in every exam except six. The examiners have not excluded it twice in a row and it was not tested in Winter 08. That means it is due up. This has been tested most frequently as a Contracts crossover.
   
3. Civil Procedure ? It is only tested about 50% of the time. However, the bar has not tested it in the last four exams. I can't believe they would extend it to five. Four absences in a row already is the longest Civ Pro has gone untested. Furthermore, they added CA distinctions to the subject about a year ago. I expect a Civ Pro question that gently asks for the CA distinctions.
   
4. Contracts ? Out of the last 23 bar exams, the examiners have included Contracts in every exam except nine. This means that it is tested around 65% of the time. That's not very high. However, given how closely Remedies and Contracts are tested together (around 70% of the time), I would expect it. This is especially true as both Contracts and Remedies were not on the Winter 08 test.�
   
5. Wills or Trusts ? Both were tested on the last exam as a crossover. However, the examiners usually trade this subject off with Community Property. CP has been tested three exams in a row, which is the longest the bar has tested it without a break over the last 23 examinations. Therefore, I expect that CP will take a break. A Wills or Trusts question will take its place. I expect Wills over Trusts because they like to test CA law.
   

These are not quite as high on my list, but I believe they are more likely. MBE subjects are harder to predict in general.�

1. Con Law ? This just seems to be a recent favorite. Sakai says to look out for defamation. Con Law was not tested in Winter 08. Only once before has it been left off of consecutive exams. Thus, I expect it.
   
2. Evidence ? Was not tested in Winter 08. It has only been left off consecutive exams once in the last 23 examinations.�
   
3. Property ? just an unfounded hunch.
   

That's all I have in term of predictions. There are six essay questions, but I made eight predictions. That's because I expect PR and Remedies to be crossovers. Good luck with the last few weeks of studying. Feel free to add any ideas or analysis in the comments.

Since when am I good at property?

In general, I?m OK with my practice MBE scores. I am very close to passing and I did better than most BarBri students did. However, I am still disturbed by how different the results were from my perception of how well I would do. For instance, I expected to do well in crim pro and that did not happen. Furthermore, I considered property to be one of my worst subjects and it turned out to be one of my best. In fact, when taking the exam, I skipped several property questions so I could focus on subjects that I felt I was strong in. Even with skipping questions, I was near the top in property.

I suppose this shows why having empirical data is important in making decisions. Now I can focus on the subjects where I?m weak. Con law and property can relax. �Hopefully I'm also wrong about how unprepared I am for the essay exam.

Just over two weeks to go

There are two and a half weeks until I take the bar exam. The hardest part is keeping it together emotionally. Some days I am able to go to BarBri and learn like a normal person. Other days, usually when I am practicing essays, I go into panic mode and start feeling as if I don't know enough to pass the exam.

As of now, I feel like I will pass the performance tests. If the tests are in a subject I'm familiar with, I might even be able to do quite well enough to offset other poor scores. The MBE is in the middle. On our practice MBE test, I came very close to a passing score. With the next two weeks, I'm sure I can improve enough to pass. But even with my predicted improvement, my scores will still be closer to the pass threshold point than I would like them to be. The essays will likely be my weakest scores. I think I will do a decent job of structuring the essays and on analysis because I've been practicing writing them. However, I am horrible at rote memorization and believe I will have trouble reciting the rules. At least I can always make up the rules as I go along and pick up points on analysis. However, I doubt that is good enough to pass. Maybe that will get me through an obscure non-MBE subject.

Just over two weeks to go.

My practice MBE results in detail

I'm still digesting the results so I don't have much analysis at this point. However, it is impossible to miss the wide gap between my strong and weak subjects. Wow. What happened to crim pro being strong? When did I get good at property? Oh, boy.

Over all, I got 114 of 200 correct, which is 57%. My total score represents the 55th percentile.

Torts:	16 correct out of 34 (47% correct)	Percentile rank: 24%
Intentional Torts	4 out of 9 (44% correct)	Percentile rank: 37%
Negligence: Duty of Care	3 out of 9 (33% correct)	Percentile rank: 26%
Negligence: Causation, Parties	2 out of 6 (33% correct)	Percentile rank: 10%
Strict Liability; Products Liability	4 out of 7 (57% correct)	Percentile rank: 38%
Nuisance; Defamation; Privacy	3 out of 3 (100% correct)	Percentile rank: 85%
Contracts:	16 correct out of 34 (47% correct)	Percentile rank: 29%
Formation of Contracts	3 out of 7 (43% correct)	Percentile rank: 20%
Consideration	3 out of 4 (75% correct)	Percentile rank: 55%
Third Party Beneficiary; Assignment	0 out of 5 (0% correct)	Percentile rank: 5%
Statute of Frauds; Parol Evidence	1 out of 3 (33% correct)	Percentile rank: 44%
Conditions; Discharge; Impossibility	5 out of 6 (83% correct)	Percentile rank: 92%
Remedies	4 out of 9 (44% correct)	Percentile rank: 22%
Criminal Law:	19 correct out of 33 (58% correct)	Percentile rank: 41%
Homicide	3 out of 4 (75% correct)	Percentile rank: 66%
Other Crimes	2 out of 3 (67% correct)	Percentile rank: 58%
Inchoate Crimes; Accomplices	4 out of 8 (50% correct)	Percentile rank: 24%
State of Mind; Defenses	4 out of 6 (67% correct)	Percentile rank: 52%
Criminal Procedure	6 out of 12 (50% correct)	Percentile rank: 38%
Constitutional Law:	25 correct out of 33 (76% correct)	Percentile rank: 90%
Judicial Review	5 out of 6 (83% correct)	Percentile rank: 84%
Separation of Powers	5 out of 5 (100% correct)	Percentile rank: 87%
Intergovernmental Immunities	5 out of 5 (100% correct)	Percentile rank: 95%
Individual Rights	6 out of 10 (60% correct)	Percentile rank: 65%
First Amendment Freedoms	4 out of 7 (57% correct)	Percentile rank: 51%
Evidence:	16 correct out of 33 (48% correct)	Percentile rank: 36%
Presentation of Evidence	2 out of 6 (33% correct)	Percentile rank: 28%
Impeachment	3 out of 6 (50% correct)	Percentile rank: 61%
Relevancy; Privileges; Writings	4 out of 7 (57% correct)	Percentile rank: 34%
Character Evidence	2 out of 6 (33% correct)	Percentile rank: 17%
Hearsay	5 out of 8 (62% correct)	Percentile rank: 65%
Real Property:	22 correct out of 33 (67% correct)	Percentile rank: 83%
Estates; Leases; Co-tenancies	10 out of 13 (77% correct)	Percentile rank: 92%
Covenants; Easements	4 out of 6 (67% correct)	Percentile rank: 77%
Land Sale Contracts	2 out of 4 (50% correct)	Percentile rank: 32%
Mortgages	2 out of 5 (40% correct)	Percentile rank: 38%
Deeds; Recording	4 out of 5 (80% correct)	Percentile rank: 76%

It's game time

Now that we are in July, the bar exam seems just around the corner. Because of this, I've been doing a lot less blogging (and reading blogs) and a lot more memorizing elements. BarBri ends soon, leaving us students to figure out what we need to do to increase our chances of passing the exam. Right now, I'm been spending most of my time studying the essay only topics. I will work on those for another few days or so. After that, I'm going back to the MBE subjects and will work on those until I take the exam. I also met with a study group for the first time. I found it very helpful to talk through some of the more difficult concepts.

Now that the holiday is over, it's game time. I have my admission ticket and my hotel reservations. The examiners are not going to delay the exam because I'm not ready to take it. That means I have no choice but to study as hard as I can so I can pass this exam in a couple weeks.

I guess I'm doing ok

On the practice MBE exam, I scored about 8 points higher than the national average. I seem to have a few persistent problem areas that I can't seem to beat. The subjects I need to work on are torts, evidence (character evidence and impeachment), and contracts. I preformed strong in property, crimes (except inchoate crimes and homicide), con law and evidence (hearsay).

I am waiting for my official results which will have detailed breakdowns of my performance. While knowing all the information is hard, I found it harder to remain focused over the 6 hours of the exam. When reviewing, I found that I made reading mistakes that caused me to get questions wrong. I made mistakes I probably would not have made had I not been mentally fatigued.

From this point out, I've made a rigorous schedule for myself. I'm taking some drastic measures like severely limiting when I access the internet and unsubscribing from most of my RSS feeds. From this point out, it's all focus with a small exception for the evening of July 4.